BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Montana has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in Montana. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Montana is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Montana is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.002.6
20270.010.002.6
20280.000.002.6
20290.000.002.6
20300.000.002.6

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawmut2520191987
Westby2120242015
Hay Lake1220191989
Circle1120191979
Virgelle920251979
Jordan620241968
Wolf Point520232016
Oswego420191978
Beaverhead420171973
Chinook420252015
Sunburst320051968
Flatwillow320031978
Ingomar320231978
Albion319971982
Shelby320252015
Sun River320192019
Winifred320232023
Roundup320182018
Kalispell219921969
St Mary219941968
Cleveland220121988
Polson219971996
Augusta220181978
Great Falls220251972
Flatwillow 2220182018

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.