BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Wisconsin has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2007, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2007TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2007 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2007, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662007
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20030.000.000.08
20040.000.000.08
20050.000.000.08
20060.000.000.08
20070.000.000.08

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymond219731973
Loraine219761976
Casco219961996
Eden219661966
Rolling Pr219801966
Pt Washingtn220021983
Paris119781978
Wis Rapids119891989
Oconto Falls119921985
Manawa119811981
Omro119841968
Manitowoc119741974
Beaver Dam119781973
Washington I119771967

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.