Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Pintail Population Trend in Nebraska
Northern Pintail in Nebraska has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
-90%Since 1973
26Routes In State
45Years
Notable Northern Pintail Trends in Nebraska
long arc declinecomputed index
Northern Pintail has collapsed in Nebraska: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Nebraska
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Nebraska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±121.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Nebraska
| Kearney | 13 | 1973 | 1971 |
| Bassett | 10 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Hampton | 4 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Table | 3 | 2016 | 1977 |
| Gordon | 3 | 2018 | 1978 |
| Murray Lake | 3 | 2017 | 1987 |
| Berea | 3 | 1981 | 1981 |
| Crookston | 3 | 2024 | 2018 |
| Tilden | 3 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Surprise | 2 | 1992 | 1967 |
| Richland | 2 | 2010 | 1977 |
| Swan Lake | 2 | 2021 | 1978 |
| Johnstown | 2 | 1993 | 1977 |
| Kennedy | 2 | 2023 | 1976 |
| Benkelman | 2 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Mullen | 2 | 2016 | 2015 |
| Nenzel | 2 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Oglala Nat. Grass. | 1 | 2017 | 1999 |
| Kenesaw | 1 | 1973 | 1973 |
| Paxton | 1 | 2015 | 1977 |
| Midway | 1 | 2018 | 2018 |
| Piester Lake | 1 | 2021 | 1973 |
| Arthur | 1 | 2018 | 1997 |
| Crescent Lk | 1 | 2009 | 1980 |
| Brownlee | 1 | 2018 | 1995 |
Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.