BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Nebraska has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-90%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Nebraska: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Nebraska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Nebraska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.001.7
20260.000.001.7
20270.000.001.7
20280.000.001.7
20290.000.001.7

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kearney1319731971
Bassett1020192019
Hampton420192019
Table320161977
Gordon320181978
Murray Lake320171987
Berea319811981
Crookston320242018
Tilden320192019
Surprise219921967
Richland220101977
Swan Lake220211978
Johnstown219931977
Kennedy220231976
Benkelman219911991
Mullen220162015
Nenzel220192019
Oglala Nat. Grass.120171999
Kenesaw119731973
Paxton120151977
Midway120182018
Piester Lake120211973
Arthur120181997
Crescent Lk120091980
Brownlee120181995

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.