BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Utah has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-86%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Utah: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Utah is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±246.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Utah is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.93
20260.150.000.91
20270.140.000.89
20280.120.000.88
20290.110.000.86

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River1720231992
Moon Lake919951995
Promontory720061972
Saleratus Cr620181995
Vernal620122003
Gold Hill520182008
Main Canyon419881988
Neponset Res320171995
Skyline Driv319901988
Hill Creek319941994
E. Bear Lake220211996
Oak City219971984
Goshen220061996
Woodruff220212021
Navajo Lake220082008
Lynn220121996
Wellington 2220112011
Snowville220242015
Cleveland220162014
Altonah119801980
Beaver119731973
Randolph120241992
Callao120221992
Leamington119961996
Castle Dale119931993

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.