BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Utah has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-86%Since 1980
29Routes In State
39Years

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in Utah

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Utah: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Utah is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2029
0.11Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8695% range
±246.8%Backtest error
19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.170.000.93
20260.150.000.91
20270.140.000.89
20280.120.000.88
20290.110.000.86

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Utah.
Bear River1720231992
Moon Lake919951995
Promontory720061972
Saleratus Cr620181995
Vernal620122003
Gold Hill520182008
Main Canyon419881988
Neponset Res320171995
Skyline Driv319901988
Hill Creek319941994
E. Bear Lake220211996
Oak City219971984
Goshen220061996
Woodruff220212021
Navajo Lake220082008
Lynn220121996
Wellington 2220112011
Snowville220242015
Cleveland220162014
Altonah119801980
Beaver119731973
Randolph120241992
Callao120221992
Leamington119961996
Castle Dale119931993

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.