BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Minnesota has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-78%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Minnesota: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±176.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.18
20240.000.000.18
20250.000.000.18
20260.000.000.18
20270.000.000.18

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tenney1119901978
Ashby420162016
Chokio320081971
Dawson219891974
Osseo219741974
Knapp220092009
Appleton220131979
Edwards219731973
Wylie219981981
Erie219961976
Grygla220141979
Tyler220011993
Chokio North220221993
Hartland119821982
Big Stone120121995
Courtland119861980
Redwood Fall119841982
Maynard119831983
Gluek119901971
Backus119861986
Pine River119921980
Glyndon119981978
Badger119981978
Lake Bronson119791979
New London120102010

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.