BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Wyoming has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in Wyoming: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Wyoming is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Wyoming is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.61
20260.120.000.60
20270.110.000.59
20280.100.000.59
20290.100.000.58

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pathfinder1120061982
Bill1020001999
Elk Horn819901990
Natrona719921968
Arminto619871987
Rock River620221991
Wyarno520191978
Yoder520161980
Anchor520162016
Highlight520071991
Fiddler Lk519801980
Fontenelle420221983
Dayton420082008
Crazy Woman420001980
Seedskadee420151998
Green River419811979
Clarkelen319781974
Carter 2320222019
Seely319951993
Upton320241987
Riverview320211982
Otto220021988
Dubois220181979
Midvale219901990
Nowood220001988

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.