BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pintail Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in California has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in California. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±180.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.002.0
20270.000.002.0
20280.000.002.0
20290.000.002.0
20300.000.002.0

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Northern Pintail in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ora Loma7919831973
Shafter3919781978
Carrizo Pln1019781978
Pennington919811974
Caruthers919731973
Sattley920101972
Crescent Cty819841978
Athlone619791979
Adelaida619741974
Honey Lake520251974
Orland520071973
Atwater419901972
Dorris420191972
Niland420191973
Collegeville319851978
Crowley Lake320141972
Bakersfield319681968
Macdoel320191973
Big Bear319861969
Eagle Lake220161973
Arvin219961982
Glenn220051973
Likely220251976
Oilfields219751973
Westley219781978

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.