BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in California has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in California: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±148.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.0
20260.000.002.0
20270.000.002.0
20280.000.002.0
20290.000.002.0

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Northern Pintail in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ora Loma7919831973
Shafter3919781978
Carrizo Pln1019781978
Pennington919811974
Caruthers919731973
Sattley920101972
Crescent Cty819841978
Athlone619791979
Adelaida619741974
Honey Lake520171974
Orland520071973
Atwater419901972
Dorris420191972
Niland420191973
Collegeville319851978
Crowley Lake320141972
Bakersfield319681968
Macdoel320191973
Big Bear319861969
Eagle Lake220161973
Arvin219961982
Glenn220051973
Likely220181976
Oilfields219751973
Westley219781978

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.