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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Kansas has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Kansas: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.09 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±275.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±275.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.09 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±275.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.79
20230.000.000.79
20240.000.000.79
20250.000.000.79
20260.000.000.79

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert1819981998
Albert1020191968
Leoville919771977
Leoti420212015
Logan219901967
Missler220071978
Lakin219781971
Hays219731973
St John120151967
Coldwater120151981
Hopewell120082008
Wallace119951975
Grigston120012001

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.