BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Nevada has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Nevada: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±240%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±240%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0010
20260.000.0010
20270.000.0010
20280.000.0010
20290.000.0010

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rye Patch1419731973
Bald Mtn.1320241992
Ruby Valley 2620172006
Gardnerville520051993
Sand Pass320011995
Hiko319731969
Chimney Res.220192005
Ruby Valley219991999
Virgin Creek220172001
Illipah220212009
Fallon220101992
Dobbin Creek220181971
Darroughs Hot Spgs220062006
Dinner Sta119711971
Toiyabe Nf120162003
Eureka120141975
Majors Place120101968

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.