BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Oregon has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-81%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Pintail Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Oregon: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Pintail Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±191.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±191.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.005.4
20260.000.005.4
20270.000.005.4
20280.000.005.4
20290.000.005.4

Northern Pintail Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ordnance4019721972
Catlow Rim2020051994
Blitzen1219811981
Fish Lake1020241972
Modoc Point819721972
Barnes Val619741974
Zumwalt420051997
Emigrant Lk419841973
Three Forks220242004
Umpqua220162016
Alvord Lake220241997
Adair220112008
Pendleton219921992
Clover Creek219941975
Blizzard Gap220231984
Battle Mtn219991988
Green Mtn.219981997
Merrill219981998
Sheaville220242021
Trout Creek220171998
Albee119951995
Logdell119861986
Hauser119731973
Buchanan119751975
Malheur Nwr119961986

Northern Pintail Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.