Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Scoter Population Trend in Alaska
Black Scoter in Alaska has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
+1%Since 1986
23Routes In State
38Years
Notable Black Scoter Trends in Alaska
No notable trend signals for Black Scoter in Alaska. See the full index history below.
Black Scoter Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in Alaska is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-66%Change by 2029
0.29Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9795% range
±51.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| 2026 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| 2027 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| 2028 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| 2029 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
Black Scoter Survey Routes in Alaska
| Cold Bay | 52 | 2024 | 1993 |
| King Salmon | 39 | 2017 | 1996 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | 21 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Selawik (Short) | 9 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Dillingham | 7 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Toklat | 6 | 2005 | 1991 |
| Kugarak (Short) | 6 | 1987 | 1986 |
| Cape Nome | 5 | 2012 | 2004 |
| Red Dog | 5 | 2024 | 2023 |
| Bear Creek | 5 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | 4 | 1992 | 1984 |
| Gweek River | 4 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Coldfoot | 3 | 2002 | 1996 |
| Togiak River | 3 | 2005 | 2005 |
| Thorne Bay | 3 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Chiniak | 2 | 2010 | 1992 |
| Maclaren | 2 | 2011 | 2011 |
| Council | 2 | 1999 | 1999 |
| Utqiagvik | 1 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Monahan | 1 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Kobuk River (Short) | 1 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Kanektok Riv | 1 | 2004 | 1995 |
| Kotzebue | 1 | 2024 | 2008 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.