BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Scoter Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Black Scoter in Alaska has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+1%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Scoter Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Scoter in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Black Scoter Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in Alaska is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in Alaska is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.001.00
20260.310.000.99
20270.300.000.98
20280.300.000.98
20290.290.000.97

Black Scoter Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Black Scoter in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay5220241993
King Salmon3920171996
Kotzebue (Short)2119861986
Selawik (Short)919871987
Dillingham719961996
Toklat620051991
Kugarak (Short)619871986
Cape Nome520122004
Red Dog520242023
Bear Creek519891989
Cold Bay (Short)419921984
Gweek River420002000
Coldfoot320021996
Togiak River320052005
Thorne Bay319891989
Chiniak220101992
Maclaren220112011
Council219991999
Utqiagvik120232023
Monahan120002000
Kobuk River (Short)119911991
Kanektok Riv120041995
Kotzebue120242008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.