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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Surf Scoter Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Surf Scoter in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-61%Since 1986
24Routes In State
30Years

Notable Surf Scoter Trends in Alaska

long arc declinecomputed index

Surf Scoter has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Surf Scoter Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Surf Scoter in Alaska is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±275.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2029
0.09Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.395% range
±275.8%Backtest error
19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.190.002.4
20260.170.002.4
20270.140.002.4
20280.110.002.4
20290.090.002.3

Surf Scoter Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Surf Scoter in Alaska.
Juneau5120232003
Haines4920241989
Juneau Alt3419861985
Sitka (Short)3219921984
Zimovia Strt2020241995
Sitka1619971994
Petersburg1219871987
Mitkof Isle1119981996
Zarembo1020122012
Yakutat1020241994
Skagway919941994
Monahan619991999
Kotzebue (Short)519861986
Birch Lake420232023
Maclaren420141991
Kobuk River (Short)219911991
Lake Louise220032003
Galbraith L.120172017
Ketchikan120171996
Dillingham119931993
Red Dog120242022
Petersville119921992
Kanuti Lake120182018
Kugarak (Short)119871987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.