Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Greater Scaup Population Trend in Alaska
Greater Scaup in Alaska has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1984.
+45%Since 1984
58Routes In State
42Years
Notable Greater Scaup Trends in Alaska
No notable trend signals for Greater Scaup in Alaska. See the full index history below.
Greater Scaup Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in Alaska is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-59%Change by 2029
2.6Projected 2029 index
0.00–5.495% range
±31.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 5.3 |
| 2026 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 5.3 |
| 2027 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 5.3 |
| 2028 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 5.3 |
| 2029 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 5.4 |
Greater Scaup Survey Routes in Alaska
| Kotzebue | 296 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | 107 | 1994 | 1986 |
| Pinoche Tral (Short) | 62 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Cape Nome | 43 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Nabesna Road | 35 | 2024 | 1990 |
| Cold Bay | 32 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Adak | 31 | 2001 | 1983 |
| Sheep Mtn | 11 | 2014 | 1983 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | 11 | 1992 | 1984 |
| Sitka | 10 | 2015 | 1995 |
| Kodiak 2 | 9 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Paxson Lake | 8 | 1997 | 1991 |
| Galbraith L. | 8 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Circle | 6 | 1995 | 1995 |
| Utqiagvik | 6 | 2023 | 2021 |
| Cantwell | 6 | 2013 | 2001 |
| Toklat | 6 | 2000 | 1998 |
| Dillingham | 6 | 2013 | 1994 |
| Seven Lakes | 6 | 1994 | 1990 |
| Council | 5 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Nome | 4 | 2021 | 1993 |
| Kenny Lake | 4 | 2013 | 1987 |
| Slana | 3 | 2019 | 2019 |
| Chistochina | 3 | 2021 | 1998 |
| Happy Valley | 3 | 2024 | 1994 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.