BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Greater Scaup Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Greater Scaup in Alaska has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+45%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Greater Scaup Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Greater Scaup in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Greater Scaup Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in Alaska is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Greater Scaup in Alaska is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.005.3
20262.60.005.3
20272.60.005.3
20282.60.005.3
20292.60.005.4

Greater Scaup Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Greater Scaup in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kotzebue29620242001
Kotzebue (Short)10719941986
Pinoche Tral (Short)6219841984
Cape Nome4320241993
Nabesna Road3520241990
Cold Bay3220241993
Adak3120011983
Sheep Mtn1120141983
Cold Bay (Short)1119921984
Sitka1020151995
Kodiak 2919971997
Paxson Lake819971991
Galbraith L.820241994
Circle619951995
Utqiagvik620232021
Cantwell620132001
Toklat620001998
Dillingham620131994
Seven Lakes619941990
Council520241993
Nome420211993
Kenny Lake420131987
Slana320192019
Chistochina320211998
Happy Valley320241994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.