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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Alaska has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+59%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has risen sharply in Alaska: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Alaska is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.01–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Alaska is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.01–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.39
20260.200.000.39
20270.200.010.39
20280.200.010.39
20290.200.010.39

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kuskulana820231992
Chena Hot Spring 2820152013
Cordova820241993
Haines620051995
Delta620242024
Birch Lake520012001
Nabesna Road519971997
Maclaren520161997
Petersville520171998
Hatcher Pass520131997
Mccarthy Rd2420222015
Sourdough420241994
Monahan320031983
Slana220222001
Northway220021993
Cape Nome220062006
Elmendorf (Short)219841984
Kanuti Lake220222008
Copper River220101995
Lake Louise219971997
Swan Lake Rd220061994
Sitka219961996
Thorne Bay220021992
Yakutat220212021
Circle119921992

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.