BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Utah has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-67%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has fallen sharply in Utah: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Utah is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±317.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Utah is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.55
20260.090.000.54
20270.080.000.53
20280.070.000.52
20290.060.000.51

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lynn1020211995
Monticello719991999
Soapstone620042001
Gooseberry620162016
Alton620081997
Saleratus Cr520181997
M Warner Res520162000
Neponset Res420162010
Moon Lake319981997
Main Canyon320242024
Grizzly Rdge219981998
E. Bear Lake220152015
Dragerton219981969
Navajo Lake220121991
Skyline Driv220012001
Alton 2220232023
Vernal220112006
Randolph120191995
Callao120161999
Dixie Nf120102003

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.