BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+319%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in North Dakota: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.171.2
20270.680.181.2
20280.690.201.2
20290.700.211.2
20300.710.221.2

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns1220251980
Denbigh720242018
Lakota 2720232012
Braddock420072007
Edgeley320252025
Niles320241995
Wild Rose320241998
Danzig 2320242019
Lake George220051996
Danzig220101989
Cooperstown220222008
Horsehead Lk220241995
Lakota220081971
Webster220222009
Carpio220132013
Powers Lake220072003
Sheyenne Lk220161997
Forman120142007
Buchanan120161967
Rolla120241999
Stanley120222022
Montpelier120192009

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorkohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.