BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota has surged: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+443%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in North Dakota: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.171.2
20260.690.181.2
20270.700.191.2
20280.710.201.2
20290.720.221.2

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns820241980
Denbigh720242018
Lakota 2720232012
Braddock420072007
Niles320241995
Wild Rose320241998
Danzig 2320242019
Lake George220051996
Danzig220101989
Cooperstown220222008
Horsehead Lk220241995
Lakota220081971
Webster220222009
Carpio220132013
Powers Lake220072003
Sheyenne Lk220161997
Forman120142007
Buchanan120161967
Rolla120241999
Stanley120222022
Montpelier120192009

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.