BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Montana has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-21%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Duck in Montana. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Montana is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±239.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±239.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Montana is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±239.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.52
20260.150.000.52
20270.150.000.51
20280.150.000.51
20290.150.000.51

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaverhead1619961992
Shawmut1520242024
Hebgen Lake1420242017
Highwood919711971
Two Dot620212000
Sunburst420001998
Roy420232023
Kalispell220121970
St Mary219971976
Hay Lake220182018
Glen220102007
Augusta220241986
Elliston220242010
Dinosaurs H.M.220192019
Coleman Coulee220212021
Pablo Res.220092009
Noxon220151995
St. Mary 2220182012
Inside Road120192019
Red Rock120241990
Ester Lake120162016
Saco120242024
Whitlash120112011

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamainemichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.