BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Washington has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-83%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has collapsed in Washington: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Washington is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±273.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±273.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Washington is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±273.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.99
20260.280.000.99
20270.270.000.99
20280.270.000.98
20290.270.000.98

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonasket1220171998
Curlew519941994
Laurier520182004
L Pend O Nwr420171996
Omak Creek420242007
Cusick320111984
Turnbull Nwr220182002
Rimrock220241987
Nighthawk220242012
Malden220122007
Potholes220162016
Warm Beach120001986
Twisp120242009
Brewster120151979
Chewelah119771977
Mendota 2119911991
Reardan120112011
Columbia Nwr120062006
Wapato119941994
Asotin120022002
Twin Lakes119991985
Carlton120071995

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.