BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Minnesota has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+91%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in Minnesota: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Minnesota is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.10–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Minnesota is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.10–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.080.54
20260.310.090.54
20270.320.090.54
20280.320.100.55
20290.330.100.55

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Knapp1220071983
Blackduck1020222010
Chokio620092009
Courtland519911991
Pine River520241972
Lude520022002
Glenwood520181996
Sherburne Nr420221993
Princeton420041994
Backus420011972
Debs419721972
Lake Bronson420032003
Cass Lake320161988
Nebish320231988
Edwards319871975
Sawbill Lndg320162016
Hart Lake320221992
Sawbill Camp320241993
Crane Lake220221970
Brainerd220082008
Babbitt220022002
Tamarac Nwr120191992
St Stephen119681968
Appleton120122012
Cromwell120242024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamainemichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.