BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Maine

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Maine has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-64%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has fallen sharply in Maine: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2018TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2018 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±148.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792018
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20140.030.000.12
20150.030.000.12
20160.020.000.12
20170.020.000.11
20180.020.000.11

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boundary320042004
Carrabassett219881988
Medway220031979
Horse Mtn219851985
Moose River220071986
Greenville120132013
Baker Lake120042001
Grnd Lk Strm120001991
Ft Fairfield119931993
Hancock119981979
Aurora120121995
Cooper120032003

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.