BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Idaho has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+61%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has risen sharply in Idaho: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Idaho is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.13–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Idaho is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.13–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.061.5
20260.820.081.6
20270.840.101.6
20280.860.111.6
20290.870.131.6

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Naples920241973
Pasadena Val620071991
Iron Springs420241993
Triangle420212006
Cedar Hill220181999
Lolo Pass220192015
Cabarton220162005
Blacks Creek220072001
Centerville220111997
Sawtooth Cty220061997
Magic Mtn220112000
Dougal Res120171994

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.