BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Michigan has surged: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+243%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Duck in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Michigan is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Michigan is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.25
20270.120.000.25
20280.120.000.25
20290.130.000.25
20300.130.000.25

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gibbs City1020181998
Seney Nwr720251992
Muskallonge320152008
Ishpeming220192014
Bear Lake219961996
Galesburg119781973
Herman119901990
Crystal Fls120232023
Pickford119941989
Mayfield120132013
Skeels120002000
Shingleton119941994
Frederic119921992
Scottville120102010
Beaver Lake119921972

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamaineminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.