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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Michigan has surged: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+255%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in Michigan: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Michigan is projected to fall about 56% by 2028 — from 0.27 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Michigan is projected to fall about 56% by 2028 — from 0.27 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.110.000.24
20250.110.000.24
20260.110.000.24
20270.120.000.24
20280.120.000.25

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seney Nwr1120231992
Gibbs City1020181998
Muskallonge320152008
Ishpeming220192014
Bear Lake219961996
Galesburg119781973
Herman119901990
Crystal Fls120232023
Pickford119941989
Mayfield120132013
Skeels120002000
Shingleton119941994
Frederic119921992
Scottville120102010
Beaver Lake119921972

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamaineminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.