BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Oregon has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+2%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-necked Duck Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Duck in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Oregon is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.03–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±183.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±183.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Oregon is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.03–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±183.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.000.70
20260.360.010.71
20270.360.010.71
20280.370.020.72
20290.380.030.73

Ring-necked Duck Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point2120181993
Warner Vally2020241994
Bly 21820212007
Barnes Val619871984
Catlow Rim620232012
Lapham Res.520041999
Zumwalt420042004
Elk Lake420241982
Blizzard Gap420191989
Bly319971992
Glasgow320242024
Ruch220002000
Granite220082008
Clover Creek219941994
Chinchalo220221996
Desolation119991999
Days Creek119861981

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowamainemichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaohiosouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.