BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck

AnatidaeWaterfowlAythya collaris

Ring-necked Duck has surged: up 840% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+840%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
314RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Ring-necked Duck

The Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 314 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 24 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Ring-necked Duck TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Duck. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Duck Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.06–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.06–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.050.13
20260.090.050.13
20270.090.060.13
20280.100.060.14
20290.100.060.14

Where the Ring-necked Duck Is Detected

BBS routes recording Ring-necked Duck, sized by most recent count.

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend by State

Ring-necked Duck population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a1
Alaska+59%198831
Arizonainsufficient datan/a1
California+903%199313
Colorado-47%198829
Idaho+61%197812
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Maine-64%198612
Michigan+255%197415
Minnesota+91%197038
Montana-21%197623
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
Nevadainsufficient datan/a3
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a1
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a5
North Dakota+443%197021
Ohioinsufficient datan/a1
Oregon+2%198417
South Dakota+37%199810
Utah-67%199420
Vermontinsufficient datan/a2
Washington-83%198022
Wisconsin-40%196917
Wyoming+34%198518

Ring-necked Duck Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Ring-necked Duck population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+15%198922
Northern Pacific Rainforest+51%198216
Great Basin-21%198344
Northern Rockies+78%197648
Prairie Potholes+489%197040
Boreal Hardwood Transition+200%197047
Atlantic Northern Forest-74%197119
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-58%198842
Badlands and Prairies+51%199410
Prairie Hardwood Transition+19%196817

Ring-necked Duck Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 840% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.