BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Duck In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.070.000.14
20240.070.000.14
20250.070.000.14
20260.070.000.15
20270.070.000.15

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KnappMINNESOTA122007
CumberlandWISCONSIN71999
GlenwoodMINNESOTA52018
PrincetonMINNESOTA42004
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA42022
EdwardsMINNESOTA31987
BismarkOHIO21990
MatherWISCONSIN22011
ElderonWISCONSIN21976
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12010
GalesburgMICHIGAN11978
St StephenMINNESOTA11968
EvergreenMINNESOTA12015
AshbyMINNESOTA12014
HudsonWISCONSIN12013
LoraineWISCONSIN12011
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.