BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4 has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+15%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Duck In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.56
20260.260.000.56
20270.260.000.56
20280.260.000.56
20290.260.000.56

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA82015
KuskulanaALASKA82023
DeltaALASKA62024
Birch LakeALASKA52001
MaclarenALASKA52016
Hatcher PassALASKA52013
PetersvilleALASKA52017
Nabesna RoadALASKA51997
SourdoughALASKA42024
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA42022
MonahanALASKA32003
SlanaALASKA22022
NorthwayALASKA22002
Swan Lake RdALASKA22006
Lake LouiseALASKA21997
Kanuti LakeALASKA22022
CircleALASKA11992
ToklatALASKA12019
Kenny LakeALASKA12011
Burma RoadALASKA12009
Donelly DomeALASKA12022
Kanuti CanynALASKA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.