BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-necked Duck In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4 has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+80%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in BCR 4: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Ring-necked Duck In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.000.67
20270.320.000.67
20280.330.000.68
20290.330.000.68
20300.340.000.69

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KuskulanaALASKA292025
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA82015
DeltaALASKA62024
Birch LakeALASKA52001
MaclarenALASKA52016
Hatcher PassALASKA52013
PetersvilleALASKA52017
Nabesna RoadALASKA51997
SourdoughALASKA42024
MonahanALASKA32003
SlanaALASKA22022
NorthwayALASKA22002
Swan Lake RdALASKA22006
Lake LouiseALASKA21997
Kanuti LakeALASKA22022
CircleALASKA11992
ToklatALASKA12019
Kenny LakeALASKA12011
Burma RoadALASKA12009
Donelly DomeALASKA12022
Kanuti CanynALASKA12017
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.