BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-58%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Ring-necked Duck In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±230.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.37
20260.110.000.37
20270.110.000.37
20280.100.000.37
20290.100.000.36

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stillwater PassCOLORADO122006
MonticelloUTAH71999
Willow PeakCOLORADO62010
PiedraCOLORADO62016
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO62024
SoapstoneUTAH62004
GooseberryUTAH62016
AltonUTAH62008
M Warner ResUTAH52016
AlamosaCOLORADO41988
Weston PassCOLORADO31999
Gold HillCOLORADO32005
Rifle FallsCOLORADO32006
Main CanyonUTAH32024
Moon LakeUTAH31998
AspenCOLORADO22017
CortezCOLORADO21989
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO22024
Dunckley PasCOLORADO22017
Mcphee Res.COLORADO22024
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO22022
Grizzly RdgeUTAH21998
DragertonUTAH21998
Navajo LakeUTAH22012
Skyline DrivUTAH22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.