BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 489% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+489%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 489% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ring-necked Duck In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.12–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.12–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.090.56
20260.330.100.57
20270.340.100.57
20280.340.110.58
20290.350.120.58

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA82024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA72023
ChokioMINNESOTA62009
CourtlandMINNESOTA51991
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA52009
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA42003
SunburstMONTANA42000
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA42007
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA32024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA32024
Hay LakeMONTANA22018
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA22005
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA22010
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22022
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22008
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA22022
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA22013
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA22007
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22016
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
AppletonMINNESOTA12012
GlyndonMINNESOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.