BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+51%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Ring-necked Duck In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±291%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.20
20260.080.000.20
20270.080.000.20
20280.080.000.20
20290.090.000.20

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CordovaALASKA82024
HainesALASKA62005
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA51976
Elk LakeOREGON42024
GlasgowOREGON32024
SitkaALASKA21996
Thorne BayALASKA22002
YakutatALASKA22021
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA21984
Copper RiverALASKA22010
RuchOREGON22000
Sheep MtnALASKA12011
YrekaCALIFORNIA11996
Days CreekOREGON11986
Warm BeachWASHINGTON12000
Mendota 2WASHINGTON11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.