BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Northern Rockies has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+78%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in Northern Rockies: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.14–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.14–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.110.68
20260.400.120.68
20270.410.130.69
20280.410.130.69
20290.420.140.70

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeaverheadMONTANA161996
Hebgen LakeMONTANA142024
NaplesIDAHO92024
SeedskadeeWYOMING72023
NowoodWYOMING62024
Saleratus CrUTAH52018
CurlewWASHINGTON51994
LaurierWASHINGTON52018
Neponset ResUTAH42016
Omak CreekWASHINGTON42024
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON42017
MammothWYOMING42024
TensleepWYOMING42009
BoulderWYOMING42016
CusickWASHINGTON32011
Lolo PassIDAHO22019
CentervilleIDAHO22011
CabartonIDAHO22016
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO22006
KalispellMONTANA22012
St MaryMONTANA21997
AugustaMONTANA22024
EllistonMONTANA22024
Pablo Res.MONTANA22009
NoxonMONTANA22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.