BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-74%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ring-necked Duck In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06
20290.000.000.06

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UnderwoodNEW-YORK81970
BoundaryMAINE32004
Moose RiverMAINE22007
CarrabassettMAINE21988
MedwayMAINE22003
Horse MtnMAINE21985
Post MillsVERMONT22013
HancockMAINE11998
AuroraMAINE12012
CooperMAINE12003
GreenvilleMAINE12013
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE12000
Ft FairfieldMAINE11993
Baker LakeMAINE12004
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE12024
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK11993
NewcombNEW-YORK12009
GabrielsNEW-YORK11981
Tupper LakeNEW-YORK11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.