BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+200%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-necked Duck has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ring-necked Duck In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.05–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.05–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.040.40
20260.220.040.41
20270.230.040.41
20280.230.040.41
20290.230.050.42

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seney NwrMICHIGAN112023
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN102018
BlackduckMINNESOTA102022
GilmanWISCONSIN62024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA52024
LudeMINNESOTA52002
BackusMINNESOTA42001
DebsMINNESOTA41972
MuskallongeMICHIGAN32015
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA32016
Hart LakeMINNESOTA32022
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA32024
Cass LakeMINNESOTA32016
NebishMINNESOTA32023
IshpemingMICHIGAN22019
Bear LakeMICHIGAN21996
Crane LakeMINNESOTA22022
BrainerdMINNESOTA22008
BabbittMINNESOTA22002
Union TwpWISCONSIN22017
Rib LakeWISCONSIN21999
AmbergWISCONSIN22004
HermanMICHIGAN11990
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12023
ShingletonMICHIGAN11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.