BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-necked Duck In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Ring-necked Duck in Great Basin has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-21%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ring-necked Duck in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Ring-necked Duck In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Great Basin is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.08–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-necked Duck in Great Basin is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.08–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.060.87
20260.470.060.88
20270.480.070.89
20280.480.080.89
20290.490.080.90

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Ring-necked Duck in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA222017
Modoc PointOREGON212018
Warner VallyOREGON202024
LikelyCALIFORNIA182024
Bly 2OREGON182021
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA152017
MadelineCALIFORNIA152024
TonasketWASHINGTON122017
LynnUTAH102021
Pasadena ValIDAHO62007
AustinNEVADA62012
Barnes ValOREGON61987
Catlow RimOREGON62023
Lapham Res.OREGON52004
TriangleIDAHO42021
Iron SpringsIDAHO42024
Bald Mtn.NEVADA42019
Blizzard GapOREGON42019
ZumwaltOREGON42004
BlyOREGON31997
NubieberCALIFORNIA22015
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA22007
Blacks CreekIDAHO22007
Magic MtnIDAHO22011
Cedar HillIDAHO22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.