Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Long-tailed Duck Population Trend in Alaska
Long-tailed Duck in Alaska has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
-17%Since 1987
19Routes In State
35Years
Notable Long-tailed Duck Trends in Alaska
No notable trend signals for Long-tailed Duck in Alaska. See the full index history below.
Long-tailed Duck Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Duck in Alaska is projected to rise about 178% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+178%Change by 2029
0.33Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.095% range
±67.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| 2026 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| 2027 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| 2028 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
Long-tailed Duck Survey Routes in Alaska
| Utqiagvik | 45 | 2023 | 2021 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | 29 | 1994 | 1986 |
| Maclaren | 3 | 2019 | 1986 |
| Happy Valley | 3 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Kotzebue | 3 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Cordova | 2 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Paxson Lake | 1 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Monahan | 1 | 2017 | 1983 |
| Toklat | 1 | 2015 | 1991 |
| Cape Nome | 1 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Coldfoot | 1 | 2000 | 1996 |
| Council | 1 | 2019 | 1993 |
| Galbraith L. | 1 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Haines | 1 | 1995 | 1995 |
| Nome | 1 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Sourdough | 1 | 2002 | 1992 |
| Red Dog | 1 | 2024 | 1997 |
| King Salmon | 1 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Lake Louise | 1 | 1999 | 1994 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.