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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Long-tailed Duck Population Trend in Alaska

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Long-tailed Duck in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-59%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-tailed Duck Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-tailed Duck has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Long-tailed Duck Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Duck in Alaska is projected to rise about 462% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+462%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.0095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Duck in Alaska is projected to rise about 462% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.001.0
20270.300.001.0
20280.300.001.0
20290.290.001.00
20300.290.001.00

Long-tailed Duck Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Long-tailed Duck in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utqiagvik4520232021
Kotzebue (Short)2919941986
Maclaren320191986
Happy Valley320241993
Kotzebue320242001
Galbraith L.220251993
Cordova220032003
Paxson Lake119961996
Monahan120171983
Toklat120151991
Cape Nome120231993
Coldfoot120001996
Council120191993
Haines119951995
Nome120231994
Sourdough120021992
Red Dog120251997
King Salmon119981998
Lake Louise119991994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.