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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Alaska has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+153%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Scaup Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Scaup has surged in Alaska: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Lesser Scaup Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Alaska is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Alaska is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.94
20260.100.000.92
20270.090.000.91
20280.070.000.89
20290.060.000.87

Lesser Scaup Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Koyukuk Riv.1619951995
Maclaren820241987
Sheep Mtn820082008
Dietrich Cmp820001993
Birch Lake720052005
Paxson Lake719971993
Mud River720211997
Happy Valley620241993
Kanuti Lake620242006
Monahan520151986
Chena Hot Spring 2520172000
Chistochina420081992
Mccarthy Rd2420231990
Cape Nome419971997
Copper River419971993
Nabesna Road320151989
Galbraith L.320241993
Lake Louise320111996
Chiniak220232018
Kuskulana220191991
Cantwell220101982
Toklat219991983
Coldfoot220031996
Council220042004
Unalakleet River220132001

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.