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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Minnesota has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-85%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Scaup Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Scaup has collapsed in Minnesota: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Lesser Scaup Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.14
20230.000.000.14
20240.000.000.14
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14

Lesser Scaup Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glyndon819971997
Osseo419671967
Tenney420041995
Sherburne Nr319971997
Glenwood220192008
Hartland219991967
Beltrami219761973
Knapp220031985
Gluek219711971
Backus219781978
Big Stone120061995
Courtland120211980
Chokio119861978

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.