BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in North Dakota has surged: up 927% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+927%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Scaup Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Scaup has surged in North Dakota: up 927% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Scaup Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in North Dakota is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in North Dakota is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.52.98.2
20265.63.08.3
20275.73.18.4
20285.83.28.4
20295.93.38.5

Lesser Scaup Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild Rose3420241982
Horsehead Lk2720241980
Buchanan1820241968
Sheyenne Lk1420231985
Wimbledon1220242007
Lakota 21220242010
Dunn Center1019871975
Edgeley920222011
Danzig 2920232019
Denbigh820241978
Walcott619791979
Danzig520141982
Stanley520221973
Lakota420081968
Loraine420111985
Powers Lake420241982
Gorham319901986
Lake George220191968
Abercrombie219971997
Cedar Creek220092009
Bentley220112011
Douglas Crk220131998
Turtle Mtns220181980
Forman119961970
Cooperstown120141970

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.