BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Nevada has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

-33%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lesser Scaup Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Scaup in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Lesser Scaup Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Nevada is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Nevada is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.001.1
20260.390.001.1
20270.390.001.1
20280.400.001.1
20290.400.001.1

Lesser Scaup Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Mtn.620241992
Ruby Valley 2620162004
Dobbin Creek419851985
Dinner Sta219911991
Cortez220161968
Sheldon Nwr120092009
Ruby Valley119991999
Virgin Creek120131999

Lesser Scaup Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.