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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tundra Swan Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Tundra Swan in Alaska has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+174%Since 1986
34Routes In State
39Years

Notable Tundra Swan Trends in Alaska

long arc increasecomputed index

Tundra Swan has surged in Alaska: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Tundra Swan Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Tundra Swan in Alaska is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029
1.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.895% range
±368.6%Backtest error
19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.60.004.7
20261.60.004.7
20271.60.004.7
20281.60.004.7
20291.70.004.8

Tundra Swan Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Tundra Swan in Alaska.
King Salmon2120241993
Cape Nome1920241993
Cold Bay1220241993
Cold Bay (Short)919921984
Nome720221997
Galbraith L.520241995
Kugarak (Short)519871986
Utqiagvik420232021
Unalakleet River320191996
Mud River320241998
Skagway320072007
Teller320241997
Kotzebue320242001
Selawik (Short)319871986
Maclaren220211991
Monahan220041991
Council220241996
Happy Valley220242007
Hather Creek220121994
Salmon Lake220192009
St. Mary'S220001993
Anvik River220141999
Red Dog220242022
Kanektok Riv219991999
Dietrich Cmp220182012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.