BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tundra Swan Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Tundra Swan in Alaska has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+174%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tundra Swan Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tundra Swan has surged in Alaska: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Tundra Swan Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Tundra Swan in Alaska is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±368.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tundra Swan in Alaska is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.004.7
20261.60.004.7
20271.60.004.7
20281.60.004.7
20291.70.004.8

Tundra Swan Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Tundra Swan in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
King Salmon2120241993
Cape Nome1920241993
Cold Bay1220241993
Cold Bay (Short)919921984
Nome720221997
Galbraith L.520241995
Kugarak (Short)519871986
Utqiagvik420232021
Unalakleet River320191996
Mud River320241998
Skagway320072007
Teller320241997
Kotzebue320242001
Selawik (Short)319871986
Maclaren220211991
Monahan220041991
Council220241996
Happy Valley220242007
Hather Creek220121994
Salmon Lake220192009
St. Mary'S220001993
Anvik River220141999
Red Dog220242022
Kanektok Riv219991999
Dietrich Cmp220182012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.