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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-55%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Alaska is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Alaska is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.002.2
20270.190.002.2
20280.140.002.1
20290.100.002.1
20300.050.002.0

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Slana1920241995
Hather Creek1220241993
Adak1120011983
Mud River1120241993
Cold Bay1020251993
Kotzebue (Short)919941986
Unalakleet River820241996
Kodiak619831983
Happy Valley620241993
Kanuti Canyn620241995
Gweek River620021994
Anvik River520241998
Kanuti Lake520242006
Sheep Mtn420061985
Bear Creek419901986
Utqiagvik420232021
Chena Hot Spring 2420211999
Pinoche Tral (Short)419841984
Copper River419961993
Kanektok Riv420031995
Haines319941994
Kalifonsky320162015
Chicken320241992
Goodnews Bay320051999
Cold Bay (Short)319921989

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.