BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Utah has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has collapsed in Utah: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±576.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±576.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±576.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.79
20260.240.000.78
20270.240.000.78
20280.240.000.78
20290.240.000.78

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Callao3020101999
Neponset Res1220171995
Saleratus Cr1220181995
Main Canyon1020131991
Wellington 2920112009
M Warner Res520181995
Snowville520151999
E. Bear Lake420191999
Fish Lake Nf419991993
Bear River320231992
Vernal320122012
Gold Hill319991999
Timpie Spg219821982
Oak City219811980
Goshen220242006
Lynn220091982
Skyline Driv220012001
Hill Creek219931993
Dixie Nf220181994
Hanna220002000
Wellington220012000
Alton220092002
Beck119731970
Altonah119821973
Grizzly Rdge120192019

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.