BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Oregon has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+52%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has risen sharply in Oregon: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Oregon is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Oregon is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.51
20260.030.000.51
20270.030.000.50
20280.030.000.50
20290.020.000.50

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim1020231995
Blizzard Gap720041985
Zumwalt420041997
Clover Creek419891989
Emigrant Lake 2320082008
Joseph320231984
Silver Creek319961996
Warner Vally320171994
Chinchalo320142009
Malheur Nwr219981998
Bly 2220242010
Barnes Val219871984
Emigrant Lk219731973
Bly219951995
Fish Lake219781972
Battle Mtn219991999
Picture Flat220172009
Sheaville220242014
Three Forks120112009
Santiam120142014
Nicolai Mtn.120242024
Bridgeport120071990
Buchanan119831983
Alvord Lake119871987
Willow Spg119691969

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.