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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-72%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Kansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±460.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±460.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Kansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±460.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.070.000.33
20230.070.000.33
20240.060.000.32
20250.060.000.32
20260.060.000.32

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Albert1019871968
Ruleton819911991
Wallace319951972
St John220171969
Leoti220212021
Missler119801980
Lakin119861986
Hopewell120092009
Plymell120212021

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.