BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Nebraska has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-33%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green-winged Teal in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.25
20260.080.000.25
20270.070.000.25
20280.070.000.25
20290.070.000.25

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murray Lake819921992
Paxton520151977
Gordon220181978
Crescent Lk220161980
Brownlee220022002
Stratton220151996
Table120161977
Kimball119971997
Tilden120192019
Wheeler Co120241978
Swan Lake119971984
Piester Lake120172017
Kennedy120242016

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.