BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Texas has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-1%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green-winged Teal in Texas. See the full index history below.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Texas is projected to fall about 16% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Texas is projected to fall about 16% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.13
20250.050.000.13
20260.050.000.13
20270.050.000.13
20280.050.000.13

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pantex1020231975
Floydada720162008
Friona520172017
Waka420021980
Dalhart420162006
Cactus420192019
Channing319671967
Dougherty320172010
Texline219891989
Post220101989
Circle119831968
Twichell120002000

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.