BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Green-winged Teal in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-53%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.14
20270.040.000.14
20280.040.000.14
20290.040.000.14
20300.040.000.14

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tenney920141991
Tracy420172017
Mahtowa320072000
Mcgregor320042004
Greenbush320091999
Hartland219991982
Redwood Fall220252025
Dawson219881988
Appleton219811981
Chokio219791978
Cromwell219941972
Pine River220191981
Hovland219761976
Debs220142014
Lake Bronson220111978
Sherburne Nr120051991
Big Stone120031998
Minnetonka120002000
Arlington119721972
Cass Lake119871987
Princeton119851970
Osseo119711971
Knapp119931973
Backus119801980
Edwards120001989

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.