BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in New Mexico

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Green-winged Teal in New Mexico has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-92%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-winged Teal Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-winged Teal has collapsed in New Mexico: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Green-winged Teal Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in New Mexico is projected to rise about 55% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±715%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±715%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-winged Teal in New Mexico is projected to rise about 55% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±715%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.001.3
20250.130.001.3
20260.120.001.3
20270.110.001.3
20280.100.001.3

Green-winged Teal Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Green-winged Teal in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grenville820031977
Pastura519991999
Angel Fire520021992
Crownpoint319941994
Cooley Lake320232023
Vallecitos320072007
Lakewood319971997
Maxwell220181999
Dulce220162004
Angel Fire 2220172007

Green-winged Teal Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.