BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

18 species in this guild. As a group they are +142%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Minnesota is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Minnesota is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.4–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.33.8
20262.51.33.8
20272.61.33.8
20282.61.33.8
20292.61.43.9

Member Species In Minnesota

Waterfowl species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Lesser ScaupAnatidae-85%
Northern PintailAnatidae-78%
CanvasbackAnatidae-73%
Blue-winged TealAnatidae-70%
RedheadAnatidae-66%
Northern ShovelerAnatidae-64%
Hooded MerganserAnatidae-52%
Green-winged TealAnatidae-48%
Ruddy DuckAnatidae-38%
GadwallAnatidae-29%
Red-breasted MerganserAnatidae-27%
Common MerganserAnatidae-16%
Wood DuckAnatidae+22%
Ring-necked DuckAnatidae+91%
MallardAnatidae+107%
Common GoldeneyeAnatidae+180%
Trumpeter SwanAnatidae43×
Canada GooseAnatidae66×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.