BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Waterfowl In Arizona

All statesArizona

5 species in this guild. As a group they are +46%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Waterfowl In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Arizona is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in Arizona is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.000.65
20270.280.000.65
20280.280.000.65
20290.280.000.64
20300.280.000.64

Member Species In Arizona

Waterfowl species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
GadwallAnatidae-87%
Black-bellied Whistling-DuckAnatidae-54%
Cinnamon TealAnatidae-24%
Ruddy DuckAnatidae+1%
MallardAnatidae+130%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.