BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Arizona has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-24%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Arizona is projected to fall about 88% by 2028 — from 0.20 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Arizona is projected to fall about 88% by 2028 — from 0.20 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.57
20250.050.000.56
20260.040.000.55
20270.030.000.55
20280.020.000.54

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 21820162015
Alpine820231992
Coolidge619761976
Vicksburg519881988
Dry Park420072007
Mormon Lake319701969
Laguna320131979
Casa Grande320182018
Ajo320002000
Prescott220151978
Araby120112011
Hunt119841984

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.